Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $115,927, up nearly 4% in a week, as weakening U.S. economic data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Risk assets, including equities and crypto, benefited from this shift in sentiment, with the S&P 500 closing at record highs on hopes of looser monetary policy.
Recent data highlighted the economic slowdown. The U.S. economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than initially reported for the year ending March, marking the sharpest downward revision in history. August saw just 22,000 jobs added, unemployment rising to 4.3%, and jobless claims climbing to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021. Inflation, however, proved sticky, with the latest CPI figures coming in hotter than expected. This combination of weaker jobs and higher inflation has reignited fears of stagflation.
Despite the gloomy macro outlook, bitcoin continued to strengthen, topping $116,000 and nearly closing a CME futures gap at $117,300. Technicals remain favorable, with BTC holding higher lows since September’s $107,500 bottom. The 200-day moving average stands at $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — a key bull market support — hit a record $109,668.
Crypto-related stocks showed mixed performance. MicroStrategy (MSTR) ended flat, lagging behind rivals like MARA Holdings (+7%) and XXI (+4%). MSTR trades below its 200-day average, testing critical support around $326. Meanwhile, preferred stock issuance was muted, though options trading across all perpetual preferreds could attract yield-seeking investors.
Markets are betting on three Fed rate cuts by year-end, with a September cut now widely expected. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10-year briefly dipping under 4%, signaling easing financial conditions. Still, the U.S. dollar index remains at multiyear support, a key level for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s resilience, combined with potential Fed easing, may set the stage for renewed momentum — and possibly an altcoin season as retail investors return.
