PETALING JAYA: CIMB Research expects the telecommunications sector’s fibre broadband (FBB) average revenue per user (Arpu) to erode further in the second half of this year (2H25).
The Arpu had fallen in the second quarter of 2025, down by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 2% year-on-year (y-o-y), owing to bundled discounts and promotional rebates to acquire or retain customers.
“However, we think Arpu may be more stable thereafter, as most of the subscriber base would have re-contracted on the new offers introduced since 2H23 (following implementation of Mandatory Standard on Access Pricing on Mar 1, 2023),” it said.
The research house said the FBB Arpu erosion was due to intense competition.
It pointed out that fixed services revenue fell 2.5% y-o-y and 1.1% q-o-q in the second quarter, slightly worse than mobile services.
“This decline was entirely driven by Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM), where some bandwidth deals were deferred into 3Q25, there was a one-off settlement with MYTV, and Internet revenue was soft amid still-intense competition,” CIMB Research said.
“Maxis did better than expected; slight miss at CelcomDigi. Most telcommunications companies under our coverage reported 2Q25 earnings broadly in line with expectations, except Maxis, which beat expectations, and CelcomDigi, which underperformed,” the research house said.
It added that Maxis’ core earnings per share (EPS) rose 7% q-o-q (9% y-o-y) mainly owing to lower-than-expected costs while CelcomDigi’s 2Q25 core EPS rose 9% q-o-q (2% y-igi-y), partly held back by higher-than-expected operating expenditure (opex) and effective tax rates.
Despite softer revenue, TM’s 2Q25 core EPS rose 4.5% q-o-q and up 4.2% y-o-y) owing to lower opex and depreciation.
Time’s 2Q25 core EPS fell 2.8% q-o-q on lower interest income and a higher effective tax rate, but rose by a robust 8.8% y-o-y on higher revenue and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin.
Axiata’s 2Q25 core EPS fell 49% y-o-y and 45% q-o-q, mainly dragged by its share of 36.9%-owned associate XL Smart’s losses and negative foreign exchange translation effects due to stronger ringgit.
For mobile, the research house estimated underlying industry service revenue was about stable y-o-y.
Maxis’s mobile revenue market share (RMS) rose 0.3 percentage point q-o-q to 42.7%, while CelcomDigi’s RMS fell by the same quantum to 57.3% due to slowdown in prepaid mobile Internet renewals and lower gaming spending.
