Real and staged crises present opportunities to reorient, innovate and think outside the box. Trump’s tariff ‘shock’ presents Sri Lanka’s business sector and national policy makers an opportunity for short, intermediate and long term economic and industrial policy shift out of the current neocolonial, services heavy, economic model.
At this time, the focus of discussion should be on Development of New Products and New Markets by businesses and entrepreneurs, in partnership with state agencies in order to grow the economy out of the Eurobond- USD debt trap and International Monetary Fund bailout business.
Sri Lanka has abundant fishery and high value Graphite and Minerals including Rare Earths such as Zircon, as well as, Titanium ilmenite, phosphates etc. These are low hanging fruit with huge potential to grow the national economy through value addition and integration into regional supply chains.
Firstly, it would be important to develop new export products by leveraging existing resources Marine and Mineral resources, industrializing and value adding in these sectors.
Secondly, identifying and targeting wealthy Central and West Asian markets, particularly, the post-Soviet Republics and Shanghai Corporation countries, as well as, Middle Eastern countries to export high value Sri Lankan goods would be beneficial. Sri Lankan businesses also need to pivot to the BRICS and their allies to grow the economy- particularly China and Russia.
Asia is the growth hub of the world and the West is in Decline at this time. South and Southeast Asian markets already have similar products, so targeting wealthy Central and West Asian markets where transport costs would be manageable makes sense.
Third, Sri Lanka has high quality agricultural products but not large quantities, or an economy of scale. Hence, priority should be given to identifying wealthy niche markets for traditional high quality products like spices, Cinnamon, pepper, tea, rubber and coconut products, and for new marine (fishery), and mineral exports, such as, Graphite, Zircon, Titanium, phosphates, etc.
Tariff Hype but Narrow Discussion Sans Data Analysis
Despite and perhaps because of the much hyped Trump Tariff ‘shock” and possible economic disaster scenarios in the corporate media echo chamber and among think tanks, there has been a narrow focus on negotiations with Washington by the Sri Lanka Government team.
There has been inadequate analysis of the country’s export products and export market profile also given questions about data accuracy, to assess any real impacts of the Trump tariff hike.
While the US makes claims that it is the biggest export market of Sri Lankan goods and hence the biggest contributor to foreign exchange earnings, the European Union (EU) has made a similar claim!
By making such claims, both the EU and US seek to exert influence in the country, to control its development trajectory and resources. Such claims have shaped the geostrategic island’s current pattern of dependent development on former Imperial powers, economic underdevelopment and failure to industrialize.
At a recent discussion at the Center for Poverty Analysis it was surmised that the Trump tariffs would have marginal impact on primary commodity exports such as tea, rubber and coconut sectors as these mainly go to other markets. However, women in the garment sector were the most vulnerable and likely segment of the population to face hardship if at all due to the Trump tariffs.
Data accuracy regarding the volume of Sri Lankan exports and their markets were necessary for an adequate assessment if any of the Trump tariffs impacts it was noted. This, also in the context of concerns about some firms that are heavily import dependent such as apparel, under-invoicing, tax evading and parking foreign currency overseas. The latter practice had also contributed to Sri Lanka’s staged first ever Sovereign Default in 2022 amid the Aragalaya chaos and regime change operation.
The Geopolitical Economic Big Picture and BRICS
At this time of a global Trump tariff shocks, we need lateral and critical thinking and analysis of the big picture of Geopolitical Economics. However, national media and think tanks have mainly focused on un-transparent negotiations in Washington by President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka’s inexperienced team.
India, one of the founder countries of BRICS how hit with fifty percent tariffs had a duel or parallel track negotiation process with Washington. The first track focused on national economic issues (e.g. protecting local agriculture and dairy from multinational Agri-business including GMO seeds were top priority of the Modi govt. also for its own survival). Sadly, Sri Lanka has already conceded these sectors that are crucial to national food security to the Bill Gates and Tony Blair Foundations!
The second track of Indian Govt tariff negotiations focused on geopolitical issues, which included Indian Govt. purchases of Russian oil amid Trump’s threats of secondary sanctions, as well as, defense corporation.
The BRICS challenge of de-dollarization and trading in local currencies, and other Geopolitical considerations clearly are the subtext of the global Tariff Shock. Leading BRICS countries, Brazil, China, India, have been hit with over 50 percent tariffs.
President Trump is fighting to maintain the hegemony of the US Dollar as the Global Reserve currency, increasingly, of last resorts, given a whopping $ 36 trillion US deficit as economist and author of Super Imperialism, Professor Michael Hudson has noted. Hudson has also pointed out that the tariffs are set to compound odious debt traps in Global South countries, and make debt servicing impossible. Hence, the only solution is for debt trapped countries in the Global South to refuse to pay predatory bondholders rather than remain in the IMF’s Odious debt restructure rabbit holes.[i]
At this time, questions remain as to what geostrategic security concessions were made by President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka’s team that went to Washington vis-à-vis the Trump’s Tariff Shock red herring? Did the NPP regime promise protection of Israeli Spy-der webs and Container smuggling operations in Sri Lanka to turn it into an Indian Ocean hub for Project Stargate’s Artificial Intelligence infrastructure and data centers? This would include surveillance of the Indian Ocean energy, trade and submarine date cable routes for the coming Third World War on China, the BRICS and Global South.[ii]
Was it an accident that in the same week that the Trump Tariff hype reached a crescendo and announcement was made that Arkia Israel Airlines would resume flights to Sri Lanka in September 2025? Flights from Israel has been suspended in May 2024 as the War in Palestine escalated. The Tel Aviv – Colombo route would be operated by Gullivair Airbus A330-200 aircraft it was announced. This, despite mounting opposition by citizens to Israeli land grabbing, shady business deals and tourism in strategic and environmentally vulnerable coastal and hill top areas, not to mention the Chabad house phenomenon.
The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce: An Absence of Imagination, Innovation and entrepreneurialism?
It is indeed laughable that the NPP regime in Colombo continued to import Salt and canned fish this year despite grand promises to develop the economy. Moreover, Sri Lanka is surrounded by the Indian Ocean, which is full of salt and fish and the country should have industrialized to export volumes of these products.
However, rather than address the issue of under-development and lack of industrialization, there has been a blame game between the business sector and the government. The private sector seems to prefer to passes the buck to the State, rather than provide leadership as the ‘Captains of Industry’ should.
There has been an abject failure by the private sector for decades to leverage existing resources such as Graphite, Salt or fishery- even to supply domestic markets, never mind export markets and industrialization.
In the context it bears repeating that the Trump tariffs present an opportunity for Sri Lanka’s so-called ‘captains of industry’ and the AMCHAM colonized Ceylon Chamber of Commerce to re-orient, and pivot to develop New Products and New Markets outside Euro-America by leveraging existing resources in the country.
The Trump Tariff Shock also presents the NPP regime in Colombo an opportunity for long and short term strategic economic planning to enable leveraging Sri Lanka’s valuable marine and mineral resources, such as, fishery and Graphite.
The failure to industrialize these sectors with a National Development Plan and an over-reliance on services and low end manufacturing (tourism and apparel), and exporting labour and brain draining the country in order to generate foreign exchange is reflective of a colonial dependency economy syndrome among the business community (so-called Captains of Industry) and National Policy Makers, which have contributed to the current ISB-IMF debt trap bailout business.
Private Sector: A Colonial Dependency and Hand Out Mentality?
When I briefly worked as a Consultant for the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), on a ‘Constraints to Growth Analysis’ I was often asked by international experts: why is Sri Lanka, which is so well endowed in resources and talent so lacking in innovation, i.e. industrializing and leveraging existing resource? My answer would be that the so-called business community has been, sadly, an engine of de-industrialization and under-development because it remains highly dependent on Euro-American Development Aid, advisors and experts, and markets due to a colonial dependency mentality.
This dependency syndrome of the business sector and failure to recognize the real Wealth of the Nation is also true to a great extent of the local economic think tanks, research community, and policy makers, albeit with a few exceptions.
The Business community constantly plays a blame game and passes the buck to the government, as if the GoSL signing Free Trade Agreements with all and sundry is the solution to their lack of entrepreneurship.
We may call this phenomenon, geostrategic Sri Lanka’s Neocolonial Hang Over- in the Asian 21 Century because the country has long suffered from being a Donor Darling” with too many Economic Hitmen as ‘advisors and experts’!
A foreign Aid and Experts dependency mentality is clear in the current context of the failure to recognize the rise of the BRICS and the need to Pivot to Asian Markets which are the growth centers of the world at this time by the SL Chamber of Commerce and NPP policy makers alike.
Foreign Aid Dependency and Indian Ocean Resources in the Faux Anthropocene
The Marine and Mineral sectors should have been industrialized long ago and Sri Lanka should be exporting and not importing Sea Salt and canned fish. However, these sectors have been deliberately kept small scale and artisanal” while Distant Water States like France and Japan send industrial scale trawlers to harvest Indian Ocean fishery resources.
Maintaining under-development in the Fisheries Sector in Sri Lanka has been in line with OECD Donor agendas and in the name of ‘environmental protection’ in line with the United Nation’s faux Anthropocene, which is also being staged with geoengineering of climate disasters and the use of weather modification technologies, cloud seeding/ cloud bursts, heat dome, etc. generated with HAARP and Directed Energy Weapons (DEW).
The UN climate catastrophe and Anthropocene narrative increasingly serve to de-develop, de-industrialize and impoverish Global South countries in the name of environment protection”, while facilitating the financializing of Mother Nature and the marketing of Green and Blue Bond scams at this time.[iii] The result is depriving famers and fishers access to their tradition farmlands, forests and ocean areas in the name of ‘environmental conservation’ with a gravy train of conservation NGOs as the Transnational Institute Report on Ocean Grabbing shows.[iv]
Meanwhile, development aid donors of the industrialized countries particularly, the EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, etc. harvest Indian Ocean fishery as data from the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission show. [v] Although, these are not Indian Ocean countries they take out Indian Ocean fisheries resources with industrial fishing fleets and trawlers while Indian Ocean rim countries like Sri Lanka remain impoverished and engaged in ‘artisanal fishery’ – purportedly to save the environment and prevent over-fishing of the Indian Ocean![vi]
France has claimed almost 20 percent of the Indian Ocean Sea bed and valuable mineral resources at UNCLOS using colonial islands like Mayotte and Reunion and is in a dispute with Mauritius at this time. So too, a part of Sri Lanka’s extended Exclusive Economic Zone has been claimed by France, whose International development agency- AFD- funds various think tank research projects on fisheries and the Blue Economy to distract from EU’s Indian Ocean Grabbing![vii]
Performance of Private Sector
Sri Lanka has valuable minerals, Graphite, Zircon, Titanium etc. but only mineral sands are exported and there is little value addition or attempt to integrate into regional and global value chains and no contribution to the country’s GDP and export income.
There needs to be a broader critique of the SL Business Community and Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, which remains historically colonized, heavily Aid Dependent, mentally and materially, (including GSP Plus and minus). The ‘Captains of industry ‘seem focused on pleasing Euro-American donors with a few products (garments, primary commodities, tourism, etc.) and unable to pivot to Asian markets with value products leveraging local resources rather than imported raw materials like textiles for garments.
Simultaneously, there is need for concerted critical analysis of the performance and practices of the Business Sector in the county. At this time there is a need for Government and Think Tanks to develop a fuller analysis of the challenges and opportunities that the Trump Tariff shock presents, particularly, a Geopolitical Economic discussion that relates the micro-level to the Macro global dimensions. Clearly, the need of the hour is for proactive identification of new markets in Asia and Global South countries which are increasingly the growth hub of the world at this time for high value export products from Sri Lanka.
Finally, the Trump tariffs underline the need for countries like Sri Lanka to eschew US dollar dependency which exposes them to Exogenous Shocks and related currency manipulation, and have a long term strategy towards de-dollarization. In short, pivot away from neocolonial dependency and increasingly an IMF-fueled USD debt entrapment culture.
[i] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYMUa8DEO8k [iii] How much Debt can the Ocean Sustain? https://www.tni.org/en/publication/blue-finance [iv] https://www.tni.org/en/publication/the-global-ocean-grab-a-primer [v] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/05/eu-accused-of-neocolonial-plundering-of-tuna-in-indian-ocean and https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/26/european-fishing-fleets-accused-illegally-netting-tuna-indian-ocean. See also the Transnational Institute Report on ‘Ocean Grabbing.’ [vi] The Environmental Impacts of the Militarization of the Indian Ocean https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqV44gItEQ4 [vii] The Environmental Impacts of the Militarization of the Indian Ocean https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqV44gItEQ4
