Inflation, much like a lunar rocket, has been on a journey of ups and downs, according to New York Fed President John Williams. Speaking at an aviation museum on Long Island, Williams highlighted the progress made towards achieving economic goals but emphasized that the mission is not yet complete.
The Numbers Game
The New York Fed’s core inflation measure, the Multivariate Core Trend Inflation, has seen a decrease from 5.5% in June 2022 to a 2.3% annual rate in December. Williams acknowledged that there may be “bumps” along the way but anticipates the personal consumption expenditure price index to fall within the 2%-2.25% range this year, with a projected 2% inflation rate by 2025.
Economic Forecast
Williams foresees a slight dip in U.S. GDP growth to around 1.5% this year, down from the 2.5% rate seen in 2023. He also expects a modest increase in unemployment to approximately 4%. Despite the current unemployment rate of 3.7%, Williams believes the economy remains robust, with inflation gradually aligning closer to the 2% target.
Looking Ahead
Regarding monetary policy, Williams hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts later this year during an interview. He acknowledged potential risks of higher-than-expected inflation while recognizing the vulnerability of the economy if consumer spending wanes unexpectedly.
Stocks like DJIA and SPX experienced a downward trend in early afternoon trading, with the 10-year Treasury note yield inching down to 4.89%.
In conclusion, the economic landscape appears strong with diminishing imbalances, though inflation continues to hover above the desired 2% benchmark. As inflation maneuvers its way back to stability, navigating through economic trajectories akin to a lunar mission will be crucial for policymakers and market participants alike.