Crypto market anticipates volatility from employment data.
The U.S. July employment report is slated for release at 8:30 PM Beijing time, with a forecasted addition of 110,000 jobs and a slight unemployment increase to 4.2%.
The report’s outcome could influence Federal Reserve policy, impacting the U.S. dollar, gold prices, and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The U.S. employment data release scheduled for Friday evening is expected to show a moderate gain of 110,000 jobs, a drop from June’s figure. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, abstained from offering specific guidance in his recent statement, maintaining a wait-and-watch approach as emphasized in his remarks earlier this week.
A rise in unemployment from 4.1% to 4.2% is anticipated, along with a 0.3% increase in average hourly wages. The employment report could shape expectations about the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, with lower-than-expected data potentially prompting dovish sentiment and impacting the U.S. dollar. Analysts suggest strong data exceeding 150,000 jobs would support dollar strength.
Cryptocurrency markets are showing resilience ahead of this anticipated report, as highlighted by a reduction in the Federal Reserve rate-cut probability from 68% to 45%. “The market’s expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was as high as 68%, but this probability has now plummeted to only 45%. Despite such a significant adjustment in policy expectations, the market has not seen a more severe sell-off, reflecting the resilience of investor sentiment, or perhaps still waiting for more confirmation signals,” says Jin Shi, Analyst, Market Commentary.
Did you know? U.S. jobs data has historically swayed the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions, often reinforced by crypto market volatility, with BTC and ETH showing increased activity immediately after such reports.
Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $113,485.53 with a market cap over $2.26 trillion. Daily trading volumes reached $92.34 billion, marking a 33.54% change. BTC’s 24-hour price dropped by 2.23%, with a long-term 90-day gain reported at 18.21%, according to CoinMarketCap.
The Coincu research team highlights potential for regulatory attention and market volatility resulting from the employment report. Historical trends suggest fluctuations in BTC and ETH volatility coincide with U.S. macroeconomic events, warranting cautious investor strategies.
