Rivian Automotive and Tesla Deliveries: A Comparison


Rivian Automotive and Tesla are gearing up to report their third-quarter deliveries. According to analysts at Baird, although both companies are worth including in your portfolio, Rivian is more likely than Tesla to surpass consensus expectations.

Tesla’s Delivery Expectations

Baird’s Ben Kallo noted that Tesla’s delivery expectations have been affected by temporary factory shutdowns and questions surrounding demand. Kallo forecasts that Tesla will report 439,200 vehicle deliveries for the quarter, a 6% decrease from the previous quarter. However, the consensus among analysts tracked by FactSet is slightly higher at 462,000 units.

Despite challenges in selling new vehicles, Kallo believes that strong demand in China for the revamped Model 3 vehicle will provide a long-term boost to sales. Additionally, higher prices for the Model 3 and Model Y should support margins. Kallo maintains his $300 target price and Outperform rating on Tesla stock.

Rivian’s Potential Surprise

While Rivian is considerably smaller than Tesla, Kallo remains optimistic about its delivery performance and believes it could surprise the market. According to FactSet consensus, Rivian is expected to deliver around 14,000 units during the September quarter.

Kallo addresses concerns about weakening demand by asserting that underlying demand for Rivian remains strong and that production is improving. He also highlights that an inflection point for Rivian could occur next year when the company provides more details about its planned R2 production platform and upgrades the production capacity of its existing R1 factory.

Baird maintains a $30 target price and Outperform rating on Rivian stock. As of premarket trading on Tuesday, Rivian shares were down 0.9% at $20.95.

Final Thoughts

Both Rivian and Tesla have potential in the electric-vehicle market. While Tesla’s delivery expectations have been influenced by factory shutdowns and demand concerns, the company is still regarded as the best positioned among its peers. Rivian, on the other hand, continues to show promise and has the potential to outperform market consensus. Investors should carefully consider including both stocks in their portfolios.

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