The Likelihood of a U.S. Recession and the Outlook for Inflation


Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, with its extensive $190 billion fixed income assets, predicts a relatively high chance of a U.S. recession by the end of this year. Additionally, they expect inflation to decrease to around 3%.

Economic Challenges

Although recent economic data suggests a fluctuating combination of recession and expansion, there are notable obstacles that hinder sustained economic growth over several years. The magnitude of financial tightening, along with the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening, are significant headwinds contributing to this challenging environment, as highlighted by Steven Brown, the chief investment officer at Guggenheim Total Return GIBIX (-0.69%) and Macro Strategies.

Monetary Policy Impact

The Federal Reserve has made five interest rate hikes since March of the previous year, totaling a 5-percentage-point increase.

Read: This economist says he can’t rule out a Fed interest-rate cut by year-end. Here’s why.

Inflation Projection

Contrary to expectations, Brown stated that inflation is not likely to fall to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until 2024; it will remain higher this year. Moreover, he emphasized that both overall inflation and core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) will align more closely over time.

By staying aware of these forecasts and trends, investors can gain valuable insights to navigate the ever-changing economic landscape.

Market Environment Presents Opportunities for Fixed Income Investors

The current market environment is offering great opportunities for fixed income investors, according to experts. Treasury yields have reached unprecedented levels not seen in over a decade, providing a conducive landscape for investment. The yield on the 2-year Treasury stands at close to 5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed slightly above 4%.

Capturing Returns in Volatile Times

Jim Brown, a seasoned investor, views this as an excellent chance to secure returns for clients. Brown identifies potential in non-agency structured credits, such as asset backed securities and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities. The presence of wide credit spreads and significantly low dollar prices means that these securities offer attractive current yields and total return prospects.

Resilient Investments in Uncertain Times

Considering the uncertain economic climate, Brown emphasizes the importance of investing in senior secured risk on pools of assets or streams of cashflows. These investments are forecasted to exhibit resilience throughout an economic cycle, making them prudent choices from a fundamental credit standpoint.

Anticipating 10-year Treasury Yield

As for the 10-year Treasury yield, Brown expects it to remain range-bound between 3% and 4%. He deems yields at or above 4% as attractive entry points to add duration.

In summary, the current market presents a unique opportunity for fixed income investors. With elevated Treasury yields and favorable spreads, investors like Brown are optimistic about capturing returns and navigating the uncertain economic landscape.

Also read: Jefferies’ Response to a World Where Everyone Can Earn Around 5% on Cash

Importance of Earning on Cash

Traditionally, cash holdings have not been associated with significant returns. However, as interest rates remain low and investment options are limited, individuals are seeking new avenues to grow their money. Earning around 5% on cash can make a substantial difference in long-term financial goals.

Jefferies’ Approach

Jefferies recognizes the importance of helping individuals make the most of their cash holdings. Through careful analysis and strategic partnerships, they have developed innovative solutions that offer competitive returns on cash investments.

Competitive Rates

One key aspect of Jefferies’ approach is offering competitive rates on cash investments. By leveraging their expertise and market insights, they are able to provide attractive returns that outperform traditional savings accounts.

This strategy not only enables individuals to earn more on their cash but also helps them stay ahead of inflation, preserving the purchasing power of their money over time.

Diversified Investment Solutions

Jefferies understands that each individual’s financial goals and risk tolerance are unique. That’s why they offer a range of diversified investment solutions tailored to meet varying needs and objectives.

Whether it’s through money market funds, short-term bonds, or other cash equivalents, Jefferies provides options that align with an individual’s investment preferences. These solutions are carefully crafted to offer stability, liquidity, and attractive returns.

Embracing Technology

In today’s digital age, Jefferies recognizes the importance of incorporating technology to enhance the client experience. By leveraging cutting-edge platforms and tools, they provide individuals with easy access to their cash investments, allowing for seamless monitoring and management of their funds.


The financial landscape is changing, and Jefferies is at the forefront of helping individuals adapt and make the most of their cash holdings. Their commitment to competitive rates, diversified investment solutions, and embracing technology sets them apart in this evolving world of earning opportunities.

Remember, maximizing your cash holdings can play a crucial role in achieving your long-term financial objectives. So, explore the options available and partner with a trusted financial services firm like Jefferies to navigate this new era of earning on cash.

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